Gaffer's Portfolio
October 30,
2009
The October 30 portfolio update proves one thing: Never act on
hunches – not that this is possible if you stick to Gaffer's plan.
I said last month that after such a long run up and October's past history I expected the
market to fall. Well it did edge down a bit but not until the end of the month with consumer spending worries.
Meanwhile, the model portfolio seems to do better in tougher markets.
But the question remains: why such a long run and will it end any time soon? I can't answer
the second question, but I think I may have the answer for the first one and it is not pretty.
It's no secret the U.S. dollar is in trouble. The amount of debt, both public and personal, is
unsupportable. The big question is how will the debt be repaid? A tax increase large enough to support repayment
would need to be so huge it would cripple the economy, probably enough to bring on a depression.
Will the economy expand quickly enough to support repayment? Doubtful!
The most likely solution is that the printing presses will churn out more paper currency and
that will slash the value of the dollar and create high inflation. It is, in my opinion, the inflation threat
and not signs of economic recovery that is driving markets higher.
While remaining close to flat in foreign currency terms, assets will cost a lot more in U.S.
dollars. Those assets will include most stocks; expectation of this is, I believe, what is pushing market prices
higher. Time will tell, but I want my money in shares of solid companies to protect it against the ravages of
impending inflation.
I would not touch bonds with a 10-foot pole!
PS: I checked the figures four times before I believed them, but the value of the portfolio at
the end of August truly was the same as it is now!
| Company |
Original purchase price |
|
Company background |
|
2008 price range |
|
Recent price |
|
Number of shs held |
|
Recent value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) |
$44.67 |
|
The company is engaged in construction & mining equipment,
diesel & natural gas engines and industrial gas turbines in its size range. It operates in 3
principal lines of business: Machinery, Engines and Financial Products. |
|
$31.95 - $85.96 |
|
55.06 |
|
25.3064 |
|
1,393.37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Diana Shipping, Inc. (DSX) |
$12.76 |
|
The Company is engaged in the ocean transportation of dry bulk
cargoes worldwide through the ownership and operation of bulk carrier vessels. |
|
$6.85 - $41.10 |
|
12.92 |
|
85.0101 |
|
1,098.33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. (FCX) |
$24.44 |
|
Through its subsidiaries, the Company engages in the exploration,
mining, and production of copper, gold, and silver. It also smelts and refines copper concentrates,
and markets the refined copper products. |
|
$15.70 - $127.24 |
|
73.36 |
|
42.9713 |
|
3,152.38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) |
$84.39 |
|
Global investment bank, securities and investment management firm
that provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that
includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high-net-worth
individuals. |
|
$47.41 - $216.79 |
|
170.17 |
|
12.5416 |
|
2,134.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) |
$23.02 |
|
The Company is a home improvement retailer,which operates in two
reportable segments, Retail and HD Supply. |
|
$17.05 - $31.08 |
|
25.09 |
|
48.3694 |
|
1,213.59 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Intel Corp (INTC) |
$14.66 |
|
The Company develops advanced integrated digital technology
platforms and components, primarily integrated circuits, for the computing and communications
industries. |
|
$12.06 - $27.42 |
|
19.11 |
|
72.8254 |
|
1,391.69 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) |
$59.83 |
|
Engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a
range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world. |
|
$52.06 - $72.76 |
|
59.05 |
|
18.2585 |
|
1,078.17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Korea Electric Power (KEP) |
$11.61 |
|
Korea Electric Power Corporation, an integrated electric utility company, engages in
the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; and development of electric power
resources in the Republic of Korea. As of December 31, 2007, the company |
|
$6.89 - $21.99 |
|
13.88 |
|
92.7750 |
|
1,240.40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Kraft Foods, Inc. (KFT) |
$26.85 |
|
The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the manufacture
and sale of branded foods and beverages in the United States, Canada, Europe, Latin America, Asia
Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. |
|
$24.75 - $34.97 |
|
27.52 |
|
42.1484 |
|
1,159.92 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nike, Inc. (NKE) |
$51.00 |
|
The Company designs, develops and markets footwear, apparel,
equipment, and accessory products. |
|
$42.68 - $70.60 |
|
62.18 |
|
21.2313 |
|
1,320.16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) |
$54.77 |
|
A global snack and beverage company. The Company manufactures,
markets and sells a variety of salty, convenient, sweet and grain-based snacks, carbonated and
non-carbonated beverages and foods. |
|
$49.74 - $79.79 |
|
60.55 |
|
20.1733 |
|
1,221.49 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (POT) |
$73.22 |
|
An integrated fertilizer and related industrial and feed products
company. |
|
$47.54 - $241.62 |
|
92.78 |
|
14.6738 |
|
1,361.43 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Schlumberger Limited (ADR) (SLB) |
$42.33 |
|
An oilfield services company, supplying technology, project
management and information solutions that optimize performance in the oil and gas industry. It
consists of two business segments: Schlumberger Oilfield Services and WesternGeco. |
|
$37.07 - $111.95 |
|
62.20 |
|
25.0694 |
|
1,559.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (STP) |
$11.70 |
|
A solar energy company that designs, develops, manufactures and
market a variety of PV cells and modules. Also provides PV system integration services in
China. |
|
$5.36 - $90.00 |
|
12.67 |
|
91.7647 |
|
1,162.66 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Toyota Motor Corp (ADR) (TM) |
$65.44 |
|
The Company is engaged in the design, manufacture, and sale of
sedans, compact cars, sport-utility vehicles, trucks & related parts & accessories
throughout the world. It also provides financing, vehicle and equipment leasing & other
financial services. |
|
$55.41 - $117.59 |
|
78.89 |
|
16.9114 |
|
1,334.14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Transocean, Inc. (RIG) |
$47.25 |
|
The Company is an international provider of offshore contract
drilling services for oil and gas wells. Its primary business is to contract the drilling rigs,
related equipment and work crews primarily on a dayrate basis to drill oil and gas
wells. |
|
$41.95 - $163.00 |
|
83.91 |
|
22.5893 |
|
1,895.47 |
| .. |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL) |
$34.51 |
|
An independent oil and gas company engaged in the development,
production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties. |
|
$28.85 - $102.81 |
|
48.55 |
|
31.3574 |
|
1,522.40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Union Pacific Corp (UNP) |
$47.80 |
|
The Company owns transportation companies. The Railroad, along with
its subsidiaries and rail affiliates, is its reportable operating segment. |
|
$41.84 - $85.80 |
|
55.14 |
|
23.0693 |
|
1,272.04 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Verizon Communications, Inc. (VZ) |
$33.90 |
|
The Company is a provider of communications services. |
|
$23.07 - $44.50 |
|
29.59 |
|
33.6856 |
|
996.76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) |
$69.58 |
|
The Company is a producer of construction aggregates and a major
producer of asphalt mix and concrete. Its business consists of the production, distribution and
sale of construction aggregates and other construction materials and related services. |
|
$39.52 - $100.25 |
|
46.03 |
|
16.6074 |
|
764.44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) |
$56.06 |
|
The Company operates retail stores in various formats around the
world. Wal-Mart Stores retail formats include: Discount Stores, Supercenters, and Neighborhood
Markets. |
|
$43.11 - $63.85 |
|
49.68 |
|
20.0611 |
|
996.63 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total: |
|
29,268.98 |
|
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| To October 30, 2009, S&P 500 Index up 14.72% |
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| Gaffer's portfolio annualized return on investment 37.10% |
|
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|
| Begun January 1, 2009, with $20,000. Adding $200 each month
end. |
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| Similar results cannot be guaranteed for you. All investment
carries some risk. |
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|
Portfolio annualized return on
investment |
|
1 month S&P 500 change |
|
1 month portfolio change |
|
S&P 500 change
y.t.d. |
|
Portfolio value, $20,000 on December 31,
2008 |
|
S&P500 index |
|
37.10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 31-Dec-08 |
903.25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 30-Jan-09 |
825.88 |
|
Above calculation is based on $20,000 initial capital, reinvested dividends
and fresh investment of $200 each month. |
|
-8.57% |
|
-2.47% |
|
-8.57% |
|
|
| 27-Feb-09 |
735.09 |
|
|
-10.99% |
|
-7.34% |
|
-18.62% |
|
|
| 31-Mar-09 |
797.83 |
|
|
8.54% |
|
|
|
-11.67% |
|
|
| 30-Apr-09 |
871.81 |
|
|
9.27% |
|
13.09% |
|
-3.61% |
|
|
| 29-May-09 |
919.14 |
|
|
5.43% |
|
0.83% |
|
1.76% |
|
24,127.80 |
| 30-Jun-09 |
896.42 |
|
|
-2.53% |
|
4.96% |
|
0.76% |
|
25,524.58 |
| 31-Jul-09 |
987.48 |
|
|
|
10.16% |
|
9.10% |
|
9.32% |
|
28,046.79 |
| 31-Aug-09 |
1,020.62 |
|
|
|
3.36% |
|
0.72% |
|
12.99% |
|
29,268.98 |
| 30-Sep-09 |
1,057.08 |
|
|
|
3.57% |
|
-1.51% |
|
17.03% |
|
28,677.48 |
| 30-Oct-09 |
1,036.19 |
|
|
|
-1.98% |
|
2.10% |
|
14.72% |
|
29,268.98 |
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